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Gas Situation Actually Has a Bright Side

Gas prices are near record high levels and they are not likely to fall significantly anytime soon. But they are not anywhere close to previous gas prices when past figures are adjusted for inflation.

In fact, prices actually fell this week, albeit less than a penny, putting the Michigan average for regular gasoline at $2.352 a gallon, AAA Michigan reports. That compares to the record of $2.359 reported last week.

Despite sticker shock, today's pump prices pale in comparison to what consumers were paying in the 1980s.

Motorists paid $1.26 for a gallon of gas in April 1980. Adjusted for inflation, $1.26 is equivalent to $3.02 in today's dollars. And with crude oil prices having fallen nearly 10 percent in the last week from record highs, some experts say there could be a plateau for gasoline prices.

Nevertheless, the pain at the pump is a real issue with consumers, despite the past.

"Its kind of tough to think about inflation-adjusted numbers when one day at the pump it's $2.10 and the next day it's $2.43," said Rick Gamber, executive director of the Michigan Consumer Federation in Lansing and a Chrysler minivan driver. "I don't think it registers when you're at the pump and you're trying to figure out how much money you've got in your wallet and you've got an empty tank."

What is starting to register is that fuel price jumps are beginning to influence how some Michigan consumers spend their money. In some cases, there are indications that people are seriously considering downsizing from sport- utility vehicles and pickup trucks to more fuel-efficient sedans.

Sales of large SUVs were down 12 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004, compared to the fourth quarter of 2003. Meanwhile, the segment saw declines in January and February of 26 percent and 13 percent, respectively, according to Ward's Automotive.

The reality of commuting in Michigan is that more people are spending more time in their cars, and with prices increasing so rapidly, more are looking for ways to save money.

Monday, the national average for gasoline jumped to $2.27 a gallon, the highest price for regular unleaded ever recorded. This marked the first time average gas prices were above $2 in all 50 states.

In metropolitan Detroit, prices jumped more than 14 cents in the last two weeks and settled at $2.31 a gallon. But Detroit residents are counting their blessings, because their neighbors in Windsor are paying the equivalent of $3.30 U.S. a gallon for petrol.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices increased Monday, following five straight days of decline, because of concerns that rising demand for gas could reduce domestic motor fuel stockpiles. The increase happened despite news from oil refiners that suggests crude oil inventories are robust and well-stocked for the upcoming summer driving season.

May delivery of crude oil rose 39 cents to close at $53.71 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The record is $58.28 set on April 4.

With so many mixed signals coming from the volatile petroleum markets in recent weeks, no one is certain what the future holds for prices.

But economists say the Michigan economy and the auto industry, in particular, remain vulnerable when gas prices remain high.

"The Michigan-based auto industry is seeing people more interested in fuel-efficient cars and a softening of SUV and light truck sales here and nationally," said Dana Johnson, chief economist and senior vice president with Comerica Bank. "To me, the special burdens for the Michigan economy are the cutbacks of production by the companies are obviously going to ripple through the state economy."

Johnson speculated that perhaps consumers ought to consider buying smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. He noted that the typical Michigan household uses about 4 percent of its total income to pay for gasoline. That figure might jump to around 5 percent if things don't get better.

Some consumers have to reassess their travel plans for the summer, given high gas prices. Daniel Fuller is one of those consumers.

The DaimlerChrysler employee leases a Dodge Durango sport-utility vehicle and owns a Dodge Neon. The Ferndale resident and his family had planned to go on their annual summer trips to the Upper Peninsula, Stratford, Canada, and a driving excursion down south.

"If prices get any higher than they are now, then I would start reevaluating" their vacation plans, said Fuller. "If they stay where they are, my next purchase will be a smaller car, there is just no way around it."