China’s emissions can peak in 2023, but only with huge investment: study 27 Aug 2013 04:00 Last updated: 27 Aug 2013 04:01
BEIJING, Aug 27 (Reuters Point Carbon) – Chinese emissions of greenhouse gases could peak within 10 years, providing the government invests $216 billion in the electricity sector and passes legislation to put a price on emitting carbon dioxide, analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance said Tuesday.
In a report on the future of China’s power market, the world’s largest, the analysts predicted China’s electricity generation capacity would rise to 2.7 TWh in 2030 from current levels 1.5 TWh.
But while overall capacity would rise, the share of coal in the generation mix would fall from 67 percent in 2012 to 44 percent in 2030.
That shift would largely be driven by massive investments in renewable energy and gas-fired power stations as well as putting a price on carbon emissions, the report said.
“If a carbon price is placed on China's power sector, emissions will peak as soon as 2023 at an average carbon price of only CNY 99/tCO2e ($16/tCO2e) during 2017-30,” it said.

It predicted China would bring the power sector into an emissions trading scheme in 2017, with the price of carbon starting at CNY 45 ($7.35) per tonne, rising gradually to around CNY 175 in 2030.
The carbon price would mean only 77 percent of new coal plants get built compared to a business-as-usual scenario, according to the report.
China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, will account for the majority of the growth in carbon emissions over the next two decades, according to the International Energy Agency.
The UK’s Met Office has previously said that unless annual global emissions peak by 2020, then the world will be at increasing risk of widespread flooding and drought caused by a warmer planet.
But weaning the world’s second biggest economy off coal, one of the main causes of greenhouse gas emissions, would take major investments.
BNEF estimated $159 billion, equal to 2 percent of China’s 2012 GDP, must be invested annually to expand the nation’s power generation capacity - half of which would go into renewable.
In addition, $57 billion must be invested in supporting infrastructure, such as long-distance transmissions line, a smart grid, storage projects and demand response systems.