The European Commission's latest analysis of greenhouse gas emissions shows the EU will fail to meet its 2050 commitment of 80% to 95% greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions, according to the European Wind Energy Association(EWEA).

The European Commission's latest reference scenario, based on current trends and policies, shows that EU GHG emissions would fall by 24% in 2020, but by just 44% in 2050 (compared to 1990 levels), with energy import dependency increasing during the period to almost 57%.

The figures are contained in the Commission’s report, "EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends to 2050", published over the Christmas break.

"With the EU's power sector expected to be still pumping out almost 400 million tonnes of CO2 annually by 2050, and the EU in an even worse energy security situation, an ambitious 2030 climate and energy framework, with targets for renewable energy and GHG reductions, is more critical than ever," said Justin Wilkes, EWEA's Deputy CEO.

“Without such targets energy security and a zero-carbon power sector will be impossible

The scenario shows that even under current trends and policies, more wind power capacity will be installed over the next 20 years than any other generating technology - accounting for 37% of new installations - with the result that wind energy will be the leading generating technology in Europe by 2040.

"The European Commission's scenario highlights a positive medium- and long-term outlook for the wind industry. However, a sharp decline in new installations of wind power from 2021 onwards of 27% highlights the vital importance of a long-term stable regulatory framework for the sector, underpinned by a 2030 renewable energy target," continued Wilkes.

Wind and other renewables together account for 59% of all new electricity generating installations over the 20 year period to 2035 in the European Commission's scenario.